Empty shelves, Trucking layoffs Lead to recession in Apollo’s Trade War Timeline

The Tariffs imposed The Tariffs By The Trump Administration Will Soon Become Apparent To Everyday Americans and Lead to A Recording This Summer, According to Apollo Global Management.

Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo, Laid Out A Timeline in a presentation for clients That Showed When The Impact of Tariffs Announced By President Donald Trump Could Hit the US Economy. Based on the Transport Time Required For Goods, US Consumers Could Start to Notice Trade-Related Shortages in Thir Local Stores Next Month, According To The Presentation.

“The Consequency Will Be Empty Shelves in US Stores in A Few Weeks And Covid-Like Shortages Using Chinese Products As Intermediate Goods,” Slok Wrote in a Note to Clients Friday.

• April 2: Tariffs Announced, Containership Departures From China to Us Slowing
• Early-to-Mid May: Containerships To US Ports Come To A Stop
• Mid-to-Late May: Trucking Demand Comes To A Halt, Leading to Empty Shelves and Lower Sales For Companies
• Late May to Early June: Layoffs in Trucking and Retail Industries
• Summer 2025: Recession

Source: Apollo Global Management

To Support The Idea That The Us Economy is On The Verge Of Recession, The Presentation Also Inluded Data That Shows New Orders For Business, Earnings Outlook and Capital Spending Plans All Fallen Sharply in Recent Weekly.

The Trump Administration Has Paused Some Of The Tariffs Announced On April 2, But Has Hiked Duties Even Higher On China. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Acknowledged Monday On CNBC’s “Squawk Box“That’s The Current Tariff Standoff With Beijing Is”Unsustainable. “Levies ten Goods From China ARE NOW SUBJECT TO A 145% Rate.

China is not the Only Source of Consumer Goods, But dog Does Have A Large Role in The US Economy. The us imported $ 438.9 Billion Of Goods From China in 2024, According To The Office of the United States Trade Representative, Putting IT Right Behind Mexico and above Canada THAT METRIC TO TEZ THE DEP OF TRADING PARTNERS.

While Many On Wall Street Are Now Saying That A Recession For The Us is likely in 2025, Sloks Predictions ARE Toward The More Pessimistic Side. Bessent Has Said The Administration Expects A “Detox Period“For The Economy Due To The Trade Negotiations But Not Necessarily A Recession.

There is Also Some Evidence Of A “Pull-Forward” From the Tariffs Were Announced, Which Could Keep Goods On The Shelves for Longer Than The Apollo Timelines Sets Out.

“Don’t Expect Empty Shelves Yet – (YEAR TO DATE) Stock is Still Up, and Demand is Slowing,” Bernstein Analesha Sherman Said in A Note to Clients Monday.

– CNBC’s Michael Bloom Contribution Reporting.